2019/01/02 ~ HAPPY NEW YEAR!

#B3-DA-2 ~ 2019/1/2 

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

I will begin the year looking at futures and sectors.  Here are some of the ideas I am looking at:

Focus on the upper half for intraday, and focus on the lower half for swings.

Notables:

Stronger:   Live cattle have the strongest price action.  Soybeans & lean hogs are on the rebound and look prime to long also. Though hogs have bounced, it has come back to the best price to short if you resume a downtrend on a longer term basis.  Silver and XHB homebuilders are on a positive deviance curve, which means that they are bouncing in a deeper year-based track. XLY and XSD are bouncing, so if you are picking stocks perhaps the semiconductors and banks are good bets.

OVB-OVS:   Natural gas is oversold; and volatility is also oversold as it has come back out of the market a bit faster than my indicators like.    Gasoline and crude oil are overbought at this point.

Reversion:   There are several sectors that have reverted to their means and are proper to short if you are to resume the downtrend:  XOP, XME, XHS and KRE.  Really all of the indexes are in this situation except for /YM Dow Jones which is showing the slightest bounce potential.  Bonds are holding neutral.

Weakness:   /6A (Aussie$) and /6C (Canadian$) are still showing no sign of coming off the 52-week lows.  Heating oil and copper are also in that same boat.

Here is the overview:

I will look at stocks tomorrow to see how the last analysis held up in this market.  Here is a link to it.

~B3